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Dedicated to being the preeminent provider of economic research to the global financial community.
The Global Economic Forum is designed to provide a daily update on the ongoing dialogue among our far-flung team. We hope you find it helpful as a vehicle that takes you into the inner sanctum of the rapidly changing global financial markets. As always, we welcome your feedback.
The Americas (New York-based)
Richard Berner is a Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Economics and Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. He co-directs the Firm's forecasting and analysis of the global economy and financial markets and co-heads the Firm's Strategy Forum. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1999, Dick was Executive Vice President and Chief Economist at Mellon Bank, and a member of Mellon's Senior Management Committee. He also served for seven years on the research staff of the Federal Reserve in Washington. Dick is a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office, and a member of the Executive Committee and a Director at large of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He is the 2007 winner of the William F. Butler Award for excellence in business economics. Dick received his bachelor's degree from Harvard College, and his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania. He researched his dissertation under SSRC-Ford Foundation grants at both the University of Louvain, Belgium, and at the University of Bologna, Italy. He speaks French and a little Italian.
David Greenlaw is a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Fixed Income Economist. His primary duties involve analysis of the U.S. economy and credit markets, including Federal Reserve and Treasury activity. He is also responsible for the projections of key economic indicators. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1986, David was an economist with the Policy Economics Group, a Washington, D.C., consulting firm. Prior to that he served on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., for four years. David holds an M.B.A. from New York University and a B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. He has also done extensive graduate work at the University of Chicago and George Washington University.
Gray Newman is a Managing Director and senior Latin America Economist who is in charge of all Latin American macro-economic research. He joined Morgan Stanley in August 2000. Before joining the firm, Gray was Senior Latin America Economist at Merrill Lynch. Previously, he was Chief Economist for Latin America for the Hong Kong Shanghai Bank (HSBC) in New York. Gray also worked in HSBC's Mexico City office for HSBC James Capel. Prior to his work at HSBC, he was Senior Economist for Interacciones Casa de Bolsa, a Mexico City-based brokerage house. Gray holds degrees in law and economics from the University of Virginia and the College of William and Mary.
Ted Wieseman is a Vice President and an economist focusing on US fixed income markets. Ted works with Chief US Fixed Income Economist David Greenlaw on Federal Reserve and US Treasury analysis and economic data forecasting and analysis, supporting the firm's Treasury, agency, and derivatives sales, and trading operations. Before joining Morgan Stanley in 1998, Ted worked for three years at Citibank, primarily focusing on foreign exchange economics. Ted holds an M.A. in economics from New York University and a B.A. in economics with a minor in mathematics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He also did graduate work in economics at Yale University.
Europe (London and Paris-based)
Melanie Baker is a member of the UK Economics team, working with David Miles and Vladimir Pillonca. Her role involves researching, analyzing and writing on UK specific topics. She joined Morgan Stanley in 1999. Melanie holds an M.A. in economics and politics from the University of Edinburgh and an M.Sc. in economics from University College London and is a CFA charterholder.
Elga Bartsch is an Executive Director whose main research focus is the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. In addition, she covers core European countries, primarily Germany and the Netherlands. Previously, Elga worked at the Kiel Institute of World Economics (a large German economic think-tank) as a research associate in the President's Office and was responsible for managing advanced studies in international macroeconomics. Having studied at the University of Hannover and the London School of Economics, Elga received a degree in Economics from Kiel University, where she graduated top of her class. Subsequently, she completed a Ph.D. in economics at the Kiel Institute.
Eric Chaney is Chief Economist for Europe at Morgan Stanley. Based in London and Paris, his main focus is on the business cycle and price and productivity developments. Eric and his team were ranked #1 by Institutional Investor for European economics in 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003. Eric was ranked #1 in the All-Europe Fixed Income Research I.I. poll in 2003. The economics team was ranked #1 by the European portfolio managers polled by Greenwich Associates in 2004 and 2005. A former associate professor of economics at the École Nationale d'Administration (ENA), Eric is a member of the Commission Économique de la Nation, an advisory board to the French Minister of Economy and Finance, since 1997. Eric is also member of the panel of market and academic economists consulted by the Governors of the Bank of France, Jean-Claude Trichet and now Christian Noyer. Eric joined the firm in January 1995 from INSEE, the French Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies, where he was chief forecaster for the French economy, and principal editor of the Institute's business cycle journal 'Note de Conjoncture'. He was previously chief forecaster for the global economy at the Economic Policy Unit of the Ministry of Finance. Eric began his career as a mathematics professor (professeur agrégé) and was the editor of L'Ouvert, an academic journal of the University Louis Pasteur of Strasbourg. He holds a MSc in Pure Mathematics from the University Claude Bernard of Lyons, and a post-graduate diploma in Economics and Econometrics from the École Nationale de Statistique et d'Administration Économique. Eric is a member of the European Economic Association.
Joachim Fels is a Managing Director and Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Fixed Income Economist and Strategist. Before assuming these responsibilities in January 2005, Joachim co-headed Morgan Stanley's European Economics Team, which won several #1 rankings in the Institutional Investor Poll over the years. He also served as Lead UK Economist, Co-head of Currency Economics and Senior German Economist during his career at Morgan Stanley. Joachim has been the firm's ECB watcher since the European Central Bank's inception in 1998. Joachim is a member of the Shadow ECB Council, of the German Banking Association's Economic and Monetary Committee, and of the Volkswagen Foundation Asset Allocation Advisory Board. Since 1999, he has been advising German Finance Minister Hans Eichel on international economic policy and financial market issues. Joachim's op-ed pieces have appeared, among others, in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal Europe, Handelsblatt and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, where he writes a regular column. Joachim joined Morgan Stanley in 1996, after four years with Goldman Sachs, where he covered continental European economies. Previously he worked at the Kiel Institute of World Economics, a large German think tank. Joachim studied economics at Kiel University (1981-83) and Saarbrücken University (1983-86), Germany, and at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna, Italy (1986/87).
Stephen Jen is a Managing Director and Chief Currency Economist. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1996. Stephen was the Asian Currency Strategist based in Hong Kong until September 1999. He is now based in London. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Stephen spent four years as an economist with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., primarily covering member countries in Asia and Eastern Europe. Stephen was actively involved in the design of the IMF's framework to provide debt relief to highly indebted countries. Stephen has also worked for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and the World Bank and has been a lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. Stephen holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, with concentrations in international economics and macroeconomics. He also holds a B.Sc. in electrical engineering summa cum laude from the University of California, Irvine.
David Miles became Managing Director and Chief UK Economist at Morgan Stanley in October 2004. He joined from Imperial College, University of London, where he retains the role of visiting Professor of Financial Economics. He specialises in research on financial markets. Miles worked for the Bank of England for several years after graduating from Oxford. After a spell in the economics Department at Birkbeck College, London he was Chief UK Economist for Merrill Lynch. He joined Imperial College in 1996. He has published widely on many aspects of finance and macroeconomics. His recent book "Macroeconomics: Understanding the Wealth of Nations", jointly written with Andrew Scott of the LBS, has just appeared in second edition. An earlier book, "Housing, Financial Markets and the Wider Economy" (1994) analysed the changing pattern of housing and housing finance in the UK. In the 2003 Budget Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown announced that he had asked Miles to undertake an independent review of the UK housing market focusing on the absence of much longer-term fixed rate lending. The Miles Report was published by HM Treasury in the Spring of 2004. Miles was appointed an executive Director of the FSA in December 2003 and took up his post on the Board of the FSA in Spring 2004.
Vladimir Pillonca works with David Miles and Melanie Baker on the UK economy. Vladimir joined Morgan Stanley in November 2004 and previously worked as a euro-area economist at MMS International and ABN Amro. He holds a MSc. in Economics from the University of Warwick and a BA from the University of Exeter.
Oliver Weeks is a Vice President who covers the EU accession countries. He joined Morgan Stanley in 2000. Previously, he worked for the Ford Foundation in Moscow and for the European Commission and the UN Development Programme in Georgia. Oliver holds a B.A. (first-class honours) in Russian and History from Oxford University and an M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics.
Japan (Tokyo-based)
Robert Feldman is a Managing Director who joined Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd. in February 1998 as the chief economist for Japan. In 2003, he also became Co-Director of Japan Research. He continues to focus on the outlook for the Japanese economy and on interest rate movements. Robert has published three books, Japanese Financial Markets: Deficits, Dilemmas, and Deregulation (MIT Press, 1986), Nihon no Suijaku ("The Weakening of Japan", Toyo Keizai 1996, in Japanese) and Nihon no Saiki ("Starting Over", Toyo Keizai 2001, in Japanese). A fluent speaker of Japanese, he has also translated four books from Japanese to English, including Economic Growth in Prewar Japan (by Takafusa Nakamura, Yale U. Press). In addition, he is a regular commentator on World Business Satellite, TV Tokyo's nightly business program. Robert was the chief economist for Japan at Salomon Brothers from 1990 to 1997. He worked for the International Monetary Fund from 1983 through 1989, in the Asian, European, and Research Departments. Robert holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and B.A.s in economics and in Japanese studies from Yale. Between college and graduate school, he worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at Chase Manhattan Bank. Robert first came to Japan as an exchange student and also studied at the Nomura Research Institute and the Bank of Japan.
Takehiro Sato is an Executive Director who focuses on the Japanese economy and the macro policies, as well as on the market outlook as a member of Global Economics Team. He joined Morgan Stanley Japan Ltd. in 1999. Previously, Takehiro worked at Sumitomo Bank, in the Treasury department. He also worked on secondment at the Japan Research Institute as a senior economist. Takehiro graduated from Kyoto University. He is a chartered member of the Security Analysts Association of Japan.
Asia-Ex Japan (Hong Kong, Singapore, Bombay-based)
Chetan Ahya is an Executive Director and the India & South East Asia economist at Morgan Stanley. He joined Morgan Stanley in mid-2000 from BNP Prime Peregrine, where he was the India economist and strategist. Chetan has a Bachelor's Degree in Commerce & Economics from the University of Mumbai, a Post-Graduate Diploma in Economics and a Master's Degree in Public Policy and Management from the University of London. He also holds professional degrees of Associate Chartered Accountant and Associate Cost and Works Accountant.
Qing Wang is an Executive Director and Chief Economist for Greater China. Qing joined Morgan Stanley in May 2007 from Bank of America where he was the Head of Economics & Strategy for Greater China. Prior to that, he spent six years as an economist with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C. covering member countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Middle East. He was also actively involved in strengthening and implementing IMF's surveillance policy framework. Qing holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland at College Park, with concentrations in international economics and public finance. He also holds a B.A. in Economics and an M.A. in Macroeconomic Management from Renmin University of China.
Denise Yam is a Vice President and member of Morgan Stanley's economics team, covering Greater China. She joined Morgan Stanley in 1998. Denise holds an M.Phil. in economics from the University of Cambridge and a B.Sc. in economics from the University of Bristol. Denise holds a CFA designation.
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